President-elect Donald Trump ‘s picks for top regulators may not lead to a total free-for-all of corporate dealmaking, but they should be more than enough to unleash the pent-up demand for mergers and acquisitions, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Ryan Kenny said in a note to clients that the second Trump administration — including the choices of Andrew Ferguson to lead the Federal Trade Commission and Gail Slater to head the Department of Justice’s antitrust arm — will be a welcome change for Wall Street investment bankers and CEOs after an aggressive approach to antitrust under the Biden administration. “New Trump appointments at FTC and DOJ likely come with a more traditional, lighter touch antitrust framework. This should drive up animal spirits and improve corporate clarity in an M & A environment where market conditions are already supportive for activity,” Kenny said. Clarity could be a key buzzword in the coming months, as some of the antitrust actions brought under current FTC Chair Lina Khan were novel and scared off other potential deals, Kenny said. “The framework was less predictable as market concentration was defined in novel ways. This kept a number of potential deals on the sidelines as the risk of legal challenge raises expenses, increases time to complete deals, and risks consuming valuable management team and board time,” the note said. One exception to the changes may be Big Tech, of which Ferguson has been an outspoken critic. However, there should be plenty of transactions to go around even if deals involving the largest tech companies are stymied, Kenny said. “Our view is that the upcoming rebound in M & A activity will be broad based, across sectors and deal sizes,” the note said. Kenny’s top picks to play an M & A boom are Goldman Sachs and Evercore . Those companies should get a piece of the M & A action, regardless of what sector sees the most activity.
Trump antitrust appointments to unleash M&A ‘animal spirits’, says Morgan Stanley